11.03.24 - 15.03.24
Results of the previous week
| COCOA+19.78 | BRN +3.56% | ES+1.1% |
NG -6.72% | VIX -2.32% | GBPUSD -0.85% |
US indices mostly moved upward. The S&P 500 has hit an all-time high. US indices were supported by positive US labour market and retail sales data. Meanwhile, rising inflation that will prevent the US Fed from transitioning to cutting interest rates has been ignored. Indices are rising because a healthy economy benefits consumption.
The US dollar showed growth against most of its opponents. The pound, the euro, and the Japanese yen rolled back from previously reached marks. This is because, when compared to other countries' economies, the US economy looks more stable even though it has a very high key interest rate. What's more, rising inflation will delay the start of a rate cut, which is also good news for the dollar.
Brent crude oil prices have reached $85.65. The energy resource was supported by a report from the International Energy Agency (IEA), in which the agency raised its oil demand forecast and lowered its production forecast. In other words, the IEA believes an energy deficit will be formed.
Key events of the current week
Germany's ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment | DATE 19.03 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The German economy has been negatively impacted by rising energy prices and changing supply chains. As a result, the country has entered into a recession. However, according to the ZEW Institute, assessments of economic sentiment have been gradually improving over the past few months. Moreover, during the last four months, they've consolidated in positive territory, and the index is gradually rising. This inspires optimism among business communities. The figure is projected to continue to rise, which is good news for the German economy and the euro. Amidst this positive data, EUR/USD could return to around 1.0970. | |||||
US Fed rates decision | DATE 20.03 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
Recently, US Fed officials have repeatedly signalled that they believe the rate hike cycle is over. That's why global analysts haven't been forecasting changes in rate level. Right now, the timing of the start of monetary policy easing is more important. According to the latest data, US inflation accelerated again to 3.2% year-over-year (up from 3.1% a month prior). At the same time, economic indicators are showing stability. Retail sales were up, while initial unemployment claims decreased. These factors suggest that the Fed doesn't need to rush to cut rates. And this will be good for the dollar. However, the dollar's rise is bad news for dollar-denominated assets, such as gold.In this context, XAU/USD may roll back to around $2100.00. | |||||
The UK. Inflation rate | DATE 21.03 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The UK's inflation rate is still above the target set by the Bank of England. At the same time, the country's economy is still raising some concerns. After a sharp decline in inflation last month, global analysts forecast the indicator to rise by 0.7% in the reporting period. This signal of a new round of growth will prevent the Bank of England from switching to a rate cut in April. Moreover, rising inflation doesn't rule out a rate hike. Expectations of continued tight monetary policy are good news for the pound. In this scenario, GBP/USD could return to around 1.2850. | |||||
